A fantasy draft board built from the betting market instead of analyst rankings. Everything below is the actual math — no black box. This page is long on purpose; skim the parts you care about.
Most fantasy rankings are one analyst's opinion. This board ignores them and ranks players off the betting market — the sharpest publicly-available price on player production there is. Sportsbooks post season-long over/unders on every stat, real money moves those numbers, and that consensus tends to price in injuries, roles, and coaching changes before rankings update. So instead of drafting off a hot take, you're drafting off the closing line — where the smart money settles.
It's completely free, runs entirely in your browser, and works for best ball and redraft. Nothing is collected and there's nothing to install.
Each player's projection starts from sportsbook season-long props — passing yards, passing TDs, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, and so on. Those get converted into fantasy points using your exact league scoring:
proj = pass_yds×0.04 + pass_TDs×(4 or 6) + INTs×penalty
+ rush_yds×0.1 + rush_TDs×6
+ receptions×PPR + rec_yds×0.1 + rec_TDs×6
+ fumbles×penalty + your yardage bonuses
Change any scoring setting and every projection recomputes. That number — the market's expectation in your points — is the raw material for everything else.
The Score column is what the board ranks by. It's an additive recipe, so you can usually just take the #1 player — but every ingredient is visible so you can override with judgment:
Score = VORP + need + cliff + boom + stack + handcuff − byeRisk
| Piece | What it is |
|---|---|
| VORP | the projection-based value — points over a replacement-level player (the anchor) |
| need | your roster boost — bigger when a position is unfilled, fades once you're stocked |
| cliff | tier scarcity — added only when you still need a starter at that position |
| boom | ceiling tilt — Boom boost × (ceiling/100) |
| stack | Stack boost if the player correlates with someone you rostered (🔗) |
| handcuff | +4 if he's the backup to an RB you own (🪢) |
| byeRisk | −12 if drafting him leaves a bye-week hole (⚠️) |
The columns you see — Proj, VORP, Cliff, 💥 — are the raw ingredients. Score is what the model does with them once it factors in your roster and your slider settings.
Raw projected points lie. An elite QB posts the most points of anyone, but QB is deep — the 12th QB isn't far off the 2nd, so that raw total overstates his value. VORP fixes it by measuring how many points a player beats a freely-available player at his position (roughly the last startable guy given your league size):
VORP = player's proj − replacement-level proj at his position
VORP does two jobs. First, it normalizes across positions — it's the only fair way to compare an RB to a WR to a QB, so you don't draft QBs three rounds too early. Second, it measures your real edge over the deep draft pool. A +15 VORP means fifteen points better than a guy you could grab in the last round. This is the anchor of the whole board; everything else is a tilt on top of it.
Cliff = this player's proj − the NEXT available player's proj at his position
Cliff answers a different question than VORP: not "how good is he?" but "if I pass, how far do I fall?" A big cliff means you're at the edge of a tier and the drop-off behind him is steep — grab the survivor. A small cliff means the pool is deep and you can wait.
This is not projected points — it's a volatility / ceiling profile: how likely a player is to detonate a league-winning week. It's built from two ingredients:
TD reliance = (rush_TDs + rec_TDs) × 6 ÷ proj # TDs are the fat-tail, week-winning stat Big-play = rec_yds ÷ receptions # yards per catch = downfield / YAC juice
Each is percentile-ranked against others at the same position (so it's relative), then blended by position and scaled to 0–100:
WR ceiling = 0.55×TD% + 0.45×bigplay% TE ceiling = 0.65×TD% + 0.35×bigplay% # TEs live and die by TDs QB ceiling = rush_share% # Konami rushing QBs spike hardest
So a possession WR who catches ten short passes and rarely scores rates low on boom even with a great projection; a TD-dependent deep threat rates high. The bonus added to Score is:
boom bonus = Boom boost × (ceiling / 100)
At the default Boom boost of 8, a 100-ceiling player gets +8, a 50-ceiling gets +4. Crank the slider to bias the whole board toward upside (great for large-field best ball), drop it to 0 to ignore ceiling entirely.
Boom boost × (their ceiling gap ÷ 100) — usually a few points. So a high-boom dart can't leap a
genuine stud unless you set the slider absurdly high. VORP stays the anchor; boom is a tilt.In best ball, correlated players win weeks together. When your QB throws for 350 and 4 TDs, his WRs eat on the same plays — so their ceiling weeks land in the same week, which is exactly what wins a matchup. Pairing a QB with his pass-catchers is one of the highest-advance-rate structures in the format.
The board flags 🔗 when an available QB matches a pass-catcher you already roster (or vice-versa) and adds your Stack boost. Turn it up early and it'll actively steer you into building stacks instead of drafting the same isolated chalk everyone else gets.
The need term is what keeps you from drafting eight WRs and no tight end. It has two flat, tunable
tiers based on how many you already have at a position, plus a taper once you're full:
| Your state at a position | Boost |
|---|---|
| Below your starting lineup (QB1 / RB2 / WR3 / TE1) | Below-min boost + Starter urgency (both flat) |
| Starters filled, still below your Min | Below-min boost (flat) |
| At or above your Min | taper — fades extras (steep for QB/TE, gentle for RB/WR) |
The key design choice: the boosts are flat within a tier — a position you're 1 short of and a position you're 3 short of get the same boost. That means value decides among your unfilled positions, instead of the most-short position hijacking the board. You draft the best player who hasn't hit his Min.
Above your Min, the taper fades extra bodies — steeply for QB/TE (never hoard onesies) and gently for RB/WR (a genuine steal still tops, but depth doesn't pile up). That taper is what stops you finishing with 11 receivers.
| Icon | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 🔥 | This position is a need for your roster right now (drives the ordering). |
| ⏳ | Safe to wait — his ADP is after your next pick, so he'll likely still be there. Grab a need instead. |
| ⚡ | Won't last — his ADP falls before your next pick, so he'll probably be gone. Take him now if you want him. |
| 🔗 | Stack — correlates with a QB or pass-catcher you already rostered. |
| 🪢 | Handcuff — the backup to an RB you own (protects that starter's workload if he goes down). |
| ⚠️ | Bye hole — drafting him leaves you with nobody to start at his position that week. Best ball fades these hard. |
Every knob is yours. The board isn't a fixed ranking — it's your draft philosophy, dialed in:
| Slider | What it does |
|---|---|
| Boom boost | How hard to chase ceiling. ~13 leans a high-ceiling team; 0 ignores boom; 20+ actively reaches for it. |
| Stack boost | How hard to build QB + pass-catcher stacks. Crank it early to force correlation. |
| Min QB/RB/WR/TE | The depth floor at each position. Below it, a spot gets the flat boost; at it, the taper kicks in. Raise a Min to guarantee more of a position (e.g. Min RB 6 → a 6th back). |
| Max TE | Hard cap — the board stops recommending TEs once you hit it. |
| Below-min boost | Flat bonus for any position under its Min. Higher = fill positions before adding value; ~0 = a near-pure value board. |
| Starter urgency | Extra flat bonus while you're below your starting lineup. Raise it to lock a full starting lineup first. |
Plus the league settings up top — teams, your draft slot, scoring, starters, and bonuses — which reshape VORP and the projections themselves.
The Format preset dropdown fills every knob to a sensible default in one click:
Pick a preset, then hand-tune anything after — your changes stick until you switch presets.
The same Vegas projections power a DFS lineup optimizer (DraftKings Classic). Set a max salary and it fills a legal lineup that maximizes projected points — and because the projections are market-derived, Vegas favorites rise on their own. It also surfaces value stacks (QB + same-team pass-catcher, plus optional double-stack and bring-back) you can lock and build around, since correlation wins DFS tournaments the same way it wins best ball.
Built by a fan, for fans. Free, no login, nothing collected — just the market's numbers with the math laid bare. Found a pick that looks wrong? That's exactly the feedback worth hearing.