DFS Lineup Optimizer — DraftKings Classic, Week 1

QB + 2 is the structural edge on a big slate: forced-shape testing across 20 slates of 10+ games (~50k builds per shape, each slate's own 99.9th percentile as the bar) puts QB+2 at 3.14x naked-QB's odds of reaching the top 0.1%, QB+1 at 2.06x, QB+3 at 3.24x (a tie with QB+2), and QB+4 back down at 2.29x. The edge grows as the threshold moves out — QB+2 is only 1.54x at the top 1% — which is why it matters most in exactly the big-field tournaments where the money is. Bring-back is not one thing: against QB+2-with-no-bring-back at the top 0.03%, the opponent's WR1 is 1.80x, TE1 1.52x, a pass-catching RB 1.13x — and the opponent's WR2/WR3 is 0.73x, actively worse than skipping it. TE1 is the default here because outside contest data puts WR1 at 57.5% of bring-backs entered versus TE1's 13.5%, so TE1 keeps most of the structural edge at a quarter of the ownership. Click a row to build the lineup around it. 🏃 = rushing QB, ranked down. Backtested on 252 optimal main-slate lineups (2020-2025, real DK salaries): the optimal QB's rushing share ran 30% when none of his pass-catchers were rostered, 18% with one, 5% with two — and zero of the 22 double-stacked optimals had a QB over 40% rushing. It's a scoring artifact: a passing TD pays the QB 4 while the receiver takes 6 + PPR + yards, so a pocket passer's ceiling must arrive through someone you can roster, whereas a designed run pays the QB all 6 and leaves no partner. Hurts was optimal-and-naked in 9 of 12; Goff in 1 of 14. Stacking a runner buys correlation that isn't there.