Showdown Optimizer

Single-game DFS: 1 Captain (1.5× points & salary) + 5 FLEX, any position, either team. Set the Vegas line and pick a game script, then the optimizer re-weights the pool around whoever it captains — backtested on 1,250 optimal lineups from every real NFL showdown DK ran, 2020-2025. A QB captain pulls his own pass-catchers up (1.66×) but a WR captain pushes a second own WR down (0.57×), since receivers split targets while a QB just delivers them; the same holds for two backs (0.48×). An RB captain lifts his own DST (1.40×) and K (1.18×) — the ahead-and-running script. Worth knowing what did not hold: the Vegas line predicts almost nothing about structure — opposite-team count sat at ~2.4 and QB-captain rate at ~21% in every total and spread bucket. The one exception is K and DST, which fade hard as the total rises (46%→23% and 45%→19%), and that is now applied automatically. The spread and total now move every projection on every script, Neutral included — defenses are repriced by the backtested 14.17 − 0.353·(opponent implied total) fit (3,230 team-weeks, r = −0.295, best-vs-worst quintile 9.3 → 4.0 pts), and offenses scale with their own implied total. Default to Neutral — the script chips only pay if you already know the script, which the line does not tell you. They are backtested now too: Shootout came out 6/6, but Favorite blowout was 6/10 with garbage time backwards — across 325 real blowouts the optimal lineup is dominated by the winning side (favorite DST 2.29×, K 1.51×, RB 1.37×) while the trailing team's pass-catchers are the worst cells on the board (dog QB 0.53×, dog WR 0.79×). All weights were reset to the measured values, damped halfway to neutral. On top of the correlation it builds a differentiated lineup: it fades chalk by ownership (Leverage), rewards boom (Ceiling), captains the high-ceiling player the field underplays, and flags cheap 🎯 punt scorers that save salary and get you unique. The Build tile tells you if you're contrarian or in a split-pot. vegas = our projection, avg = DK season average (kickers/defenses/backups).